Santa Rosalia, May 8, 2012
As the worlds 6th largest oil producer you could be forgiven for not assuming Mexico to have a strong green lobby, and you would be wrong. In fact Mexico, the Worlds 3rd largest solar potential, like the United Kingdom has taken a firm stand against climate change by passing a law that will institute legally binding carbon targets.
The law will require a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gases. Mexico the worlds 14th largest economy and 2nd largest in Latin America intends producing a staggering 35 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2024.
“With heavy fuel oil prices reaching a new peak of over 7oo Euro per ton in Europe today many Mexican firms are making renewable energy solutions top of their commercial agenda now” says SOLIDEA’s Steve Walker “There is no turning back from high heavy oil prices today it hit its second peak since the economic crises, energy cost increases are certain short term even in Mexico”
SOLIDEA recently completed a number of studies for SIN’s [small Island Nations] and for large and isolated commercial operations such as mines and petrochemical plants all who risk a premium for heavy oil and diesel energy mix to make their own electricity.
Prices of Diesel and Heavy Oil Installations vary according to the economic cycle. Both Diesel and Heavy Oil converts to an energy efficiency of around 200gr/kWh. Heavy Oil is lower cost than Diesel. “Today we have gone well beyond the parity price for Heavy Oil vs Solar over 10 years; at current prices and rate of price increases Oil looses” says Dr. Janusz Przeorek President of SOLIDEA . “For isolated companies with large power demands investing in solar now or getting a developer to do it for you makes a lot of economic sense”.
Today’s heavy oil price of 0.18c/kWh even as a raw commodity is the highest ever. Costs at the docks and transport cost getting it to the power station are all at premium. There is a high demand of oil so mark ups are far higher too; it means large price hikes are on the way even for those with a bias for a heavy oil installation.
Large industrial companies with long term projects need to factor in a renewable energy mix now and if possible they should make best use of any spare generation capacity. Further down the line there will be far less renewable energy available and as the price for such energy will reflect the available supply good business means make the best of your connection.
SOLIDEA are helping large industrial companies to compensate energy strategies companies with energy requirements exceeding 35MW can easily offset 10MW even where no Feed In Agreements exist. To equal 10MW of production capacity the equivalent of over 53MWp of solar is required in Mexico.
“Even if we assume more economic intervention and that the heavy oil price goes back down temporarily it will still creep up, over the next decade, the underlying trend is get out of heavy oil” says Walker . “Compare flat prices over the decade and factor in a marginally higher cost for solar installation at the front end even with 50% overhead on soft costs and interest; solar is still a lower cost energy solution than heavy oil”. “When we compare actual installation, maintenance and real estate cost, solar can outperform heavy oil with current inflated cost reaching a like cost per cost balance after just a few years. Underlying price increases over the last four years demonstrates its most likely to be far less than a four year before everyone is looking for solar.
“Mexico has a lot of available space for Solar, a lot of low cost land, plenty of sunshine and the right appetite”. “We are looking forward to joining forces with big users to redistribute a lot wealth in the Mexican energy business” Says SOLIDEA’s Steve Walker